Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 30.010375 33.511405 37.555824 42.650169 49.011955 5.686407e+01 67.580930
2025-03-30 24.956236 29.288550 34.761378 42.445065 53.449814 6.959618e+01 97.435987
2025-04-06 21.426783 25.964759 32.048927 41.278882 55.989001 8.110328e+01 136.354224
2025-04-13 19.961779 24.946033 32.033249 43.693671 64.675792 1.081886e+02 249.807812
2025-04-20 18.164202 23.133720 30.466226 43.194774 68.163928 1.287138e+02 428.816589
2025-04-27 16.934075 21.937635 29.574386 43.523895 73.380040 1.598402e+02 1032.398555
2025-05-04 15.970202 20.998261 28.905475 44.039118 79.296211 2.036067e+02 8395.839293
2025-05-11 15.097847 20.090156 28.135397 44.150802 84.391136 2.579931e+02 NaN
2025-05-18 14.226705 19.092865 27.073885 43.428731 86.992312 3.116164e+02 NaN
2025-05-25 13.599456 18.423611 26.492363 43.582603 92.386485 4.145829e+02 NaN
2025-06-01 12.981558 17.715091 25.754386 43.237102 96.146092 5.427802e+02 NaN
2025-06-08 12.400094 17.021316 24.968053 42.630080 98.812415 7.090839e+02 NaN
2025-06-15 11.871759 16.388153 24.248347 42.094909 101.808765 9.890106e+02 NaN
2025-06-22 11.415649 15.846985 23.652179 41.762016 105.670060 1.564623e+03 NaN
2025-06-29 10.906786 15.185499 22.770055 40.574250 105.283638 2.120202e+03 NaN
2025-07-06 10.807256 15.216479 23.224655 42.895381 123.578799 2.391088e+06 NaN
2025-07-13 10.437116 14.753159 22.659728 42.401743 127.220635 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 10.170597 14.456096 22.402691 42.716683 136.255938 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 9.938956 14.206793 22.220078 43.214243 147.547927 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 9.690632 13.913624 21.921643 43.321720 156.773097 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 9.394798 13.520318 21.384316 42.621712 159.286826 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 9.183779 13.270938 21.133792 42.770712 169.720353 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 8.949745 12.968675 20.748718 42.435803 175.815593 NaN NaN